Monthly Outlook

Initially it will be largely dry with above-average temperatures but beyond mid-week conditions are likely to be briefly cooler.

At the weekend and into next week, wet and windy weather should set in. However, it could get drier again later in the forecast period, with temperatures again above average.

Briefly cooler

Largely dry weather should prevail initially, but scattered showers, some of them thundery, are possible in southern and south-western parts of the UK on Wednesday. It should turn largely dry again on Thursday due to a strong high pressure ridge that extends from the Azores High across the UK and far north into the Atlantic. A few showers will run down the North Sea coast, with brisker winds developing. Temperatures could briefly drop slightly below average, especially in eastern parts of the UK.

There is now good agreement that wetter and windier conditions will set in towards and during the weekend as a more active North Atlantic pattern spreads in from the west.

A deepening and intense low may move north of Northern Ireland and near to north-western Scotland later on Saturday and into Sunday. This will bring stronger, and at times, quite gusty winds and spells of heavy rain or showers, some possibly thundery. Temperatures will rise at slightly above average again.

Unsettled and windy

Generally above-average temperatures are expected throughout next week although how much higher becomes less certain as the week progresses. Some weather forecast models depict somewhat cooler conditions returning at some point.

As far precipitation is concerned, conditions are more likely to remain wetter and windier at first, very similar to the end of the previous week.

Some long-range forecasts still suggest a return to more settled weather later in the week though, along with further rising temperatures and drier conditions. In fact, an elongated high pressure area could spread across parts of the UK and continental Europe. The more northern and north-western parts of the UK could see further changeable conditions, in line with a stronger low pressure remaining somewhere between Iceland and Greenland.

However, the majority of forecast solutions suggest a continuation of more widespread unsettled and windy conditions. Temperatures are likely to remain slightly above average in that case.

A warmer outlook remains

At the start of meteorological summer long-range weather forecast models diverge more and more due to the longer lead time. Much of the UK could ultimately see a return to drier and calmer conditions overall. The latter would correspond to a high pressure signal near the UK or spreading more into continental Europe. Wetter and windier conditions would then be confined to more north-western and northern parts of the UK, Scotland and Northern Ireland. Otherwise, winds could be close to average levels or even lower. In of temperature, values above or at times well above average are still the more probable outcome during this early summer period.

Friday's update should clarify the most likely weather conditions for next week, including the start of meteorological summer.